Friday, February 24, 2006
Matt Morris, Giant faithful; Giant faithful, Matt Morris
Day two of live pitcher-on-batter action in Scottsdale, and today's two most prominent hurlers--new beard in town Matt Morris and erstwhile mound flattener Armando Benitez--should make for an interesting conversation here at RRT. Below are some thoughts on Matt Morris: I'll get to Benitez tomorrow.
MATT MORRIS
In the event that they aren't aware--and my guess is, a few of them aren't--I think I ought to inform Bay Area fans that many of the nation's better baseball minds not currently within intoxication range of a Buena Vista Irish Coffee think that the signing of former Cardinal Matt Morris is a pretty poor deal for the Giants. Organization spin doctors have leaned heavily on Morris' five-year averages, and have pointed most often to his impressive win/loss totals to establish their new 9 million dollar man as a "top-tier starter." They've pointed out that he's averaged 15 wins over the past five seasons, and they've circled in orange ink that he's posted the sixth-highest winning percentage (.637) amongst NL moundsmen since 2001.
What they haven't mentioned is that Matt Morris got a big jump on those five-year averages by going 22-8 in 2001 and 17-9 in 2002, and that he's struggled since then with shoulder injuries that have made him a completely different pitcher from those glory days. Back then, Morris was a power pitcher who routinely hit 95 with his fastball and featured a devastating curveball. Now, he's older, wiser, and considerably more reliant on craft and finesse than on raw stuff. Morris now throws in the low 90s--respectable, but not overpowering--and has lost some of the bite on what was once one of the league's best yakkers.
Giants execs and beat writers also haven't seen fit to point out the readily apparent fact that Morris' gaudy winning percentages have been due in large part to the fact that he's been batting ninth in one of the most consistently devastating lineups in baseball over the past five years. It's one thing to say that he was 15-10 in 2004; it's quite another to note that he gave up 35 longballs (more than a homer per start) and posted an ERA of 4.72--his first ever above the league average (4.30). And as far as last year's seeming resurgence goes, it's worth noting that Morris began the season 10-2 with a 3.10 ERA, and then struggled to a 4-7 record and 5.57 ERA in the second half.
These factors alone are troublesome, but combined with the money Morris is owed over the next three years--about $27 million--they raise some serious warning flags. Simply put, the Giants seem to have paid top dollar based on an aggregate Morris, a statistical misrepresentation created by combining the Morris of the last two or three years with the entirely different Morris of 2001-2. While his contract wasn't completely out of whack with the deals other pitchers have been getting over the past two seasons (you can thank Omar Minaya's Kris Benson deal for that), it still seems like a big mistake to pay a 31-year old pitcher $9 million a year in the misguided belief that he is a top-of-the-rotation sort of guy.
However, the naysaying of experts like Christina Karl (Baseball Prospectus' best writer and a very sharp baseball mind), who wagered that the Morris signing would be the worst free agent pitcher deal of the 2005 offseason, seems more than a little misguided. Warning signs may abound, but there's still a lot to like about Matt Morris and his potential to help the Giants capture the NL West this year.
One of the big reasons Morris' 2004 was such a comparative disaster (run support-inflated 15-10 record notwithstanding) was his sudden infatuation with giving up the gopher ball. Last year, Morris' HR Allowed total sank from 35 back to a more reasonable 22, and it's likely that he'll give up even fewer taters next year in PacBell/SBC/AT&T Park. Morris is also a serious control artist who rarely gives himself unnecessary headaches by putting people on via the walk. Last year, he allowed just 37 walks in 192 2/3 innings over 31 starts. Morris' excellent control allows him to cut down on the number of pitches he throws per start, get ahead of batters, and, ultimately, rack up very solid innings totals. Barring injury, he's a lock for 190+ innings in 2006 (and possibly as many as 210 or more), a fact which is hugely important considering that the Giants ought to limit Matt Cain to a maximum of 175 innings no matter how well he pitches. (Think the 217 innings Morris threw as a 22-year old rookie in 1997 had anything to do with him blowing out his elbow and needing Tommy John surgery the following year? You betcha.)
And Morris does bring some intangibles that are beyond the measure of statistical analysis. He's a bulldog who wants the ball every fifth day, and a tenacious competitor who hates losing. While the words "gamer" and "winner" are more than a little overused in the baseball lexicon, it is indisputable that Morris' no-nonsense, hard-work-and-determination-first presence will help fill a serious void in the Giants rotation, the kind of void that a talented and likable headcase like Brett Tomko could never have filled. I think Morris will help everyone else on the Giants staff, pushing Jason Schmidt to be better and more competitive, and setting a very positive example for youngsters like Cain and Noah Lowry. His presence alone will set a tone for the rest of the Giants pitchers, and there's a good chance he can be a productive 14-16 game winner in his own right. It will be interesting to see if Morris' Jekyll and then Hyde year last year was more a result of injury and fatigue (coming back from off-season shoulder surgery in 2004), or whether it was a case of the league re-adjusting to him as a pitcher after he himself had re-fashioned himself as a finesse guy. Suffice to say that the Giants have invested a lot of money in the hopes that it's the former.
Discussing how Barry Bonds nearly took his head off with a line drive back through the box yesterday during batting practice, Morris joked "I could've snagged it with my teeth, but I didn't want to embarrass him." I'm sure he meant his beard, but in any case, at least the guy's got a sense of humor. Personally, I'm glad to have him aboard--even acknowledging the fact that we're paying him more than what he's worth. I've always liked watching Morris pitch, always enjoyed the gutsiness it takes to come out for a 10th inning to finish some business (something I remember him doing on more than one occasion), always enjoyed the attitude of a pitcher who works with composure and acts with enthusiasm and emotion. I don't think the Morris deal is going to be a problem right away, and I'm expecting a very solid season from him this year. Welcome to the ballclub, Mr. Morris.
MATT MORRIS
In the event that they aren't aware--and my guess is, a few of them aren't--I think I ought to inform Bay Area fans that many of the nation's better baseball minds not currently within intoxication range of a Buena Vista Irish Coffee think that the signing of former Cardinal Matt Morris is a pretty poor deal for the Giants. Organization spin doctors have leaned heavily on Morris' five-year averages, and have pointed most often to his impressive win/loss totals to establish their new 9 million dollar man as a "top-tier starter." They've pointed out that he's averaged 15 wins over the past five seasons, and they've circled in orange ink that he's posted the sixth-highest winning percentage (.637) amongst NL moundsmen since 2001.
What they haven't mentioned is that Matt Morris got a big jump on those five-year averages by going 22-8 in 2001 and 17-9 in 2002, and that he's struggled since then with shoulder injuries that have made him a completely different pitcher from those glory days. Back then, Morris was a power pitcher who routinely hit 95 with his fastball and featured a devastating curveball. Now, he's older, wiser, and considerably more reliant on craft and finesse than on raw stuff. Morris now throws in the low 90s--respectable, but not overpowering--and has lost some of the bite on what was once one of the league's best yakkers.
Giants execs and beat writers also haven't seen fit to point out the readily apparent fact that Morris' gaudy winning percentages have been due in large part to the fact that he's been batting ninth in one of the most consistently devastating lineups in baseball over the past five years. It's one thing to say that he was 15-10 in 2004; it's quite another to note that he gave up 35 longballs (more than a homer per start) and posted an ERA of 4.72--his first ever above the league average (4.30). And as far as last year's seeming resurgence goes, it's worth noting that Morris began the season 10-2 with a 3.10 ERA, and then struggled to a 4-7 record and 5.57 ERA in the second half.
These factors alone are troublesome, but combined with the money Morris is owed over the next three years--about $27 million--they raise some serious warning flags. Simply put, the Giants seem to have paid top dollar based on an aggregate Morris, a statistical misrepresentation created by combining the Morris of the last two or three years with the entirely different Morris of 2001-2. While his contract wasn't completely out of whack with the deals other pitchers have been getting over the past two seasons (you can thank Omar Minaya's Kris Benson deal for that), it still seems like a big mistake to pay a 31-year old pitcher $9 million a year in the misguided belief that he is a top-of-the-rotation sort of guy.
However, the naysaying of experts like Christina Karl (Baseball Prospectus' best writer and a very sharp baseball mind), who wagered that the Morris signing would be the worst free agent pitcher deal of the 2005 offseason, seems more than a little misguided. Warning signs may abound, but there's still a lot to like about Matt Morris and his potential to help the Giants capture the NL West this year.
One of the big reasons Morris' 2004 was such a comparative disaster (run support-inflated 15-10 record notwithstanding) was his sudden infatuation with giving up the gopher ball. Last year, Morris' HR Allowed total sank from 35 back to a more reasonable 22, and it's likely that he'll give up even fewer taters next year in PacBell/SBC/AT&T Park. Morris is also a serious control artist who rarely gives himself unnecessary headaches by putting people on via the walk. Last year, he allowed just 37 walks in 192 2/3 innings over 31 starts. Morris' excellent control allows him to cut down on the number of pitches he throws per start, get ahead of batters, and, ultimately, rack up very solid innings totals. Barring injury, he's a lock for 190+ innings in 2006 (and possibly as many as 210 or more), a fact which is hugely important considering that the Giants ought to limit Matt Cain to a maximum of 175 innings no matter how well he pitches. (Think the 217 innings Morris threw as a 22-year old rookie in 1997 had anything to do with him blowing out his elbow and needing Tommy John surgery the following year? You betcha.)
And Morris does bring some intangibles that are beyond the measure of statistical analysis. He's a bulldog who wants the ball every fifth day, and a tenacious competitor who hates losing. While the words "gamer" and "winner" are more than a little overused in the baseball lexicon, it is indisputable that Morris' no-nonsense, hard-work-and-determination-first presence will help fill a serious void in the Giants rotation, the kind of void that a talented and likable headcase like Brett Tomko could never have filled. I think Morris will help everyone else on the Giants staff, pushing Jason Schmidt to be better and more competitive, and setting a very positive example for youngsters like Cain and Noah Lowry. His presence alone will set a tone for the rest of the Giants pitchers, and there's a good chance he can be a productive 14-16 game winner in his own right. It will be interesting to see if Morris' Jekyll and then Hyde year last year was more a result of injury and fatigue (coming back from off-season shoulder surgery in 2004), or whether it was a case of the league re-adjusting to him as a pitcher after he himself had re-fashioned himself as a finesse guy. Suffice to say that the Giants have invested a lot of money in the hopes that it's the former.
Discussing how Barry Bonds nearly took his head off with a line drive back through the box yesterday during batting practice, Morris joked "I could've snagged it with my teeth, but I didn't want to embarrass him." I'm sure he meant his beard, but in any case, at least the guy's got a sense of humor. Personally, I'm glad to have him aboard--even acknowledging the fact that we're paying him more than what he's worth. I've always liked watching Morris pitch, always enjoyed the gutsiness it takes to come out for a 10th inning to finish some business (something I remember him doing on more than one occasion), always enjoyed the attitude of a pitcher who works with composure and acts with enthusiasm and emotion. I don't think the Morris deal is going to be a problem right away, and I'm expecting a very solid season from him this year. Welcome to the ballclub, Mr. Morris.
